Thursday Night Football: Rams defeat Saints 30–22 to increase their chances of making the playoffs.
With a crucial tiebreaker victory, the Rams' playoff chances improve. The Rams' victory over the Saints on Thursday was a significant step forward in their quest to return to the playoffs. According to Next Gen Stats, they had a 53% probability of making the playoffs before the game, but with the win, those odds increased to 74%. If they had lost, their odds would have dropped to 15%. The Rams entered their Week 10 bye with a 3-6 record, having lost 18 of their previous 26 games since winning Super Bowl LVI. But they've been one of the league's quieter hot teams, winning four of their last five games, with the lone setback being an overtime loss in Baltimore. There is no shame in that. And there was little dispute Thursday about who was the superior.
The Rams left some points on the board in the second quarter and took their foot off the gas in the fourth, allowing a 20-point advantage to dwindle to a one-possession lead late, just like they did against Washington on Sunday. However, they used the four-minute offence to grind out a good performance against the Saints. When Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and Aaron Donald denied reports that they were leaving the Rams, it was to get the team back into the playoffs. They've taken an important stride forward.
They'd give up two more possessions in the third quarter, with an interception and another fourth-down failure, as the Rams stretched their lead to 30-7. They roared back with two late touchdowns and a two-point conversion, but couldn't generate late defensive stops. The Saints' loss was less terrible than it would have been for the Rams, but it still hurts. Even though the Saints are still in the race for the NFC South, their playoff chances have decreased from 41% to 24% as a result of the loss.
The Rams' offence is on fire. Don't look now, but the Rams have been gaining yards as efficiently as practically any team in the NFL since Thanksgiving. They gained 458 yards against the Saints, who started the game ranked 11th in yards allowed. They've averaged 433.8 yards and 32.4 points over the last five games. Stafford completed 24 of 34 throws for 328 yards and two touchdowns while never appearing agitated or under pressure. Demarcus Robinson dominated the first half, recording six catches for 82 yards and a touchdown.
Puka Nacua dominated throughout, capping off the Rams' opening 95-yard drive with a fourth-down touchdown. Nacua had nine catches for 164 yards and two rushes for 16 more yards. Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee were the only other Rams to grab passes, but Kyren Williams provided solid ground production (22 runs, 104 yards, TD) and didn't fumble after rushing twice on Sunday. The Rams' offence may not be as well-regarded as that of the 49ers, Bills, or Ravens, but it can move the ball as well as practically any of those teams right now.
Alvin Kamara remained quiet in his poorest game of the season. For portions this season, the Saints' offence has been a source of irritation, but the one player they've been able to rely on week in and week out (since his three-game suspension to begin the season) has been Kamara. On Thursday, he ran nine times for 19 yards and caught five receptions for 16 yards, with a long gain of nine yards.
Before the game, Kamara's season low for yards from scrimmage was 45 in a comfortable win over the Panthers, and he'd logged 70 or more in every other game. The Rams attacked him aggressively, both as a runner and in coverage. The Saints struggled to open openings again without right tackle Ryan Ramczyk. The majority of Kamara's touches came on first downs, with his sole third-down contact of the game coming on a third-and-20 draw that led to a punt. The game plan seemed to be based on putting the ball into Olave's hands, and he was efficient with nine catches for 123 yards, but the Rams swarming Kamara rendered the Saints one-dimensional and put them in a hole early.
The Rams' no-name defence has also improved. The Rams' defence has had its ups and downs this season, and it showed them in both of their victories over the last four days, starting strong against Washington and New Orleans before fading late. Aside from the overtime loss to the Ravens, this Rams defence has played a significant role in the team's recent hot streak. Ernest Jones may be the best young linebacker, but he doesn't get nearly enough credit.
He recorded seven tackles, two passes defensed, a massive third-down sack on the first drive, and a pressure that forced Derek Carr's terrible INT to Jordan Fuller on Thursday. Nose tackle Kobie Turner also had a significant moment, sacking Carr on fourth down early in the game, bringing his season total to 6.5 sacks. According to Next Gen Stats, the Saints double-teamed Turner 13 times and Aaron Donald 16 times. The Rams allowed two late scoring drives in the final seven minutes, but they produced enough huge plays for three quarters to help secure another victory.
Matthew Stafford concluded the game with a season-high +12.4% CPOE on pass attempts involving shifts or movements against the Saints, going 21 of 29 for 298 yards and two touchdowns. The Rams used shift/motion on 86.4% of their plays, a season high.
Rams NT NFL Research Kobie Turner has surpassed teammate Byron Young (6.0) to lead all NFL rookies in sacks (6.5) this season.
